Tennis · Challenger Porto · 02/09, 11:00
Prediction: Mika Petkovic vs Thiago Monteiro
Team pages: Mika Petkovic · Thiago Monteiro
Prediction summary
Winner
Mika Petkovic
Thiago Monteiro
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Mika Petkovic
3-7 (W-L)
Thiago Monteiro
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mika Petkovic 1495 · Thiago Monteiro 1570
| Mika Petkovic | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1495 vs 1570).
- Thiago Monteiro is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Mika Petkovic makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Mika Petkovic | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.6 | 12.7-9.5 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 49.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mika Petkovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Tiago Torres Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 23/08 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/08 | Tim Handel M25 Ueberlingen |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Carlos Giraldi M25 Ueberlingen |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/08 | Tim Heger M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Niels McDonald Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Nikolai Barsukov Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 27/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Adrian Oetzbach Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 03/08 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Ivan Gakhov Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 31/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 30/07 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Manuel Mazza Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Alberto Bronzetti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mika Petkovic vs Thiago Monteiro?
Our model gives 67% to Thiago Monteiro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.