Tennis · Challenger Porto · 31/08, 12:30
Prediction: Alafia Ayeni vs Tiago Cacao
Team pages: Alafia Ayeni · Tiago Cacao
Prediction summary
Winner
Alafia Ayeni
Tiago Cacao
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alafia Ayeni
5-5 (W-L)
Tiago Cacao
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alafia Ayeni
1–0
Tiago Cacao
(1 last)
- 22 Jul2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafia Ayeni 1453 · Tiago Cacao 1495
| Alafia Ayeni | Tiago Cacao | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tiago Cacao (rating 1453 vs 1495).
- Alafia Ayeni dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 47.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alafia Ayeni 1–0 Tiago Cacao (1).
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Alafia Ayeni | Tiago Cacao | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (5) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-11.5 | 11.1-11.3 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 6.7 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 51.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Alafia Ayeni 1 – 0 Tiago Cacao (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alafia Ayeni 1–0 Tiago Cacao
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/21 M25 Idanha-A-Nova | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alafia Ayeni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Adrien Burdet Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zach Stephens Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Mikel Martinez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Tiago Cacao
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Rodrigo Ferro Duarte Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Fabrizio Andaloro Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Goncalo Marques M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/08 | Philip Henning M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Francisco Rocha M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/08 | Benjamin Gusic Wan M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Billy Blaydes M25 Aldershot |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Giulio Perego M25 Aldershot |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/07 | Oscar Brown M25 Aldershot |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Pablo Perez Ramos M15 Castelo Branco |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alafia Ayeni vs Tiago Cacao?
Our model gives 57% to Tiago Cacao, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.