Tennis · Challenger Porto · 01/09, 11:00
Prediction: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex Barrena
Team pages: Gilles Arnaud Bailly · Alex Barrena
Prediction summary
Winner
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Alex Barrena
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
6-4 (W-L)
Alex Barrena
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
0–1
Alex Barrena
(1 last)
- 06 Jun0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gilles Arnaud Bailly 1459 · Alex Barrena 1488
| Gilles Arnaud Bailly | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0–1 Alex Barrena (1).
Statistics
| Gilles Arnaud Bailly | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-9.8 | 10.7-11.3 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 60.6% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0 – 1 Alex Barrena (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0–1 Alex Barrena
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/25 ITF M25 Grasse | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Raphael Perot M25 Koksijde |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Fadi Bidan M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/08 | Mac Visser M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Zaccharie Cado M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Hynek Barton Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/07 | Filippo Romano Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Alex Barrena
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Henri Squire Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Jan Choinski Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Johan Nikles Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Niels Visker Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex Barrena?
Our model gives 50% to Gilles Arnaud Bailly, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.