Tennis · Challenger Porto · 01/09, 11:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Goncalo Marques
Team pages: Gustavo Heide · Goncalo Marques
Prediction summary
Winner
Gustavo Heide
Goncalo Marques
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Gustavo Heide
4-6 (W-L)
Goncalo Marques
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1487 · Goncalo Marques 1559
| Gustavo Heide | Goncalo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Goncalo Marques (rating 1487 vs 1559).
- Goncalo Marques dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 53.1% break avg.
- Goncalo Marques is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Goncalo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-11.7 | 12.6-11.7 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 6.8 |
| Double faults | 5 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 22.3% | 53.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 17/08 | Harold Mayot Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/07 | David Poljak Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Goncalo Marques
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Andrea Colombo M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 21/08 | Tristan McCormick M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/08 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Tiago Cacao M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Dan Added M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Robin Bertrand M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/08 | Andrea Colombo M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 11/08 | Sergio Callejon Hernando M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Goncalo Marques?
Our model gives 66% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.