Tennis · Challenger Porto · 30/08, 16:00
Prediction: Patrick Schoen vs Boris Arias
Team pages: Patrick Schoen · Boris Arias
Prediction summary
Winner
Patrick Schoen
Boris Arias
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Patrick Schoen
5-5 (W-L)
Boris Arias
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patrick Schoen 1538 · Boris Arias 1436
| Patrick Schoen | Boris Arias | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patrick Schoen (rating 1538 vs 1436).
- Patrick Schoen is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Boris Arias makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Patrick Schoen | Boris Arias | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-9.8 | 8.6-11.2 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 62.1% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patrick Schoen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 05/07 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 04/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/07 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Tiago Pereira M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Rigele Te M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Eliakim Coulibaly M25 Porto |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Dominique Rolland M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Vasco Leote Prata M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Boris Arias
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Andrej Martin Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Dan Martin Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/03 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 22/03 | Enzo Lima Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/03 | Federico Gaston Gonzalez Benitez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/01 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Itajai · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/11 | Maximo Zeitune Challenger Florianopolis · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patrick Schoen vs Boris Arias?
Our model gives 77% to Patrick Schoen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.