Tennis · Challenger Porto · 30/08, 15:30
Prediction: Alafia Ayeni vs Adrien Burdet
Team pages: Alafia Ayeni · Adrien Burdet
Prediction summary
Winner
Alafia Ayeni
Adrien Burdet
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alafia Ayeni
4-6 (W-L)
Adrien Burdet
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafia Ayeni 1441 · Adrien Burdet 1558
| Alafia Ayeni | Adrien Burdet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adrien Burdet (rating 1441 vs 1558).
- Alafia Ayeni dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 45.2% break avg.
- Adrien Burdet is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (7.3/match).
Statistics
| Alafia Ayeni | Adrien Burdet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 100% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.6 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-12.3 | 10.2-9.5 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 7.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 45.2% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alafia Ayeni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zach Stephens Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Mikel Martinez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/05 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Adrien Burdet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Henry Bernet M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Florent Lagarrigue M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Alexander Weis M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 10-2 | W |
| 26/08 | Mateo Fluri M25 Lausanne |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 10/08 | Leonardo Borrelli M25 Muttenz |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Laurin Aerne M25 Muttenz |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 14/07 | Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero M25 Gandia |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Christian Djonov M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
1-0 | 13-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Andrej Martin M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 15/06 | Adrien Berrut M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alafia Ayeni vs Adrien Burdet?
Our model gives 56% to Alafia Ayeni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.