Tennis · Challenger Porto · 30/08, 14:00
Prediction: David Poljak vs Jelle Sels
Team pages: David Poljak · Jelle Sels
Prediction summary
Winner
David Poljak
Jelle Sels
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
David Poljak
1-9 (W-L)
Jelle Sels
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
David Poljak
0–1
Jelle Sels
(1 last)
- 04 Oct1-2 15-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · David Poljak 1423 · Jelle Sels 1488
| David Poljak | Jelle Sels | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jelle Sels (rating 1423 vs 1488).
- Jelle Sels is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: David Poljak 0–1 Jelle Sels (1).
Statistics
| David Poljak | Jelle Sels | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (8) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.8 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-13.5 | 11.8-12.5 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 30.3% | 39.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · David Poljak 0 – 1 Jelle Sels (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · David Poljak 0–1 Jelle Sels
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/22 Challenger Mouilleron le Captif | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
David Poljak
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Samuel Vincent Ruggeri Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/06 | Dominik Palan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 24/05 | Peter Makk Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/03 | Kenny de Schepper Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 02/02 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Cesenatico · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Jelle Sels
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Pieter De Lange M25 Oldenzaal |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 25/08 | Stijn Paardekooper M25 Oldenzaal |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Abel Forger M25 The Hague |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 07/07 | Deney Wassermann M25 The Hague |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Yuichiro Inui M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Edoardo Betti Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in David Poljak vs Jelle Sels?
Our model gives 64% to Jelle Sels, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.