Tennis · M25 East Lansing · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Karl Poling
Team pages: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes · Karl Poling
Prediction summary
Winner
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Karl Poling
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
7-3 (W-L)
Karl Poling
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 1548 · Karl Poling 1504
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes (rating 1548 vs 1504).
Statistics
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.4 | 13.1-12.5 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 33.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Tyler Bowers M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Simon Caldwell M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Edward Winter ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Felipe Rivadeneira Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Zsombor Velcz ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Karl Poling
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Nikita Filin M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Thomas Fancutt M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 12/08 | Jesse Flores M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Aidan Kim Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Kokoro Isomura Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 12/07 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 11/07 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Karl Poling?
Our model gives 58% to Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.