Tennis · M25 East Lansing · 12/08, 19:00
Prediction: Axel Nefve vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Axel Nefve · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Axel Nefve
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Axel Nefve
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Axel Nefve 1441 · Sebastian Gorzny 1506
| Axel Nefve | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Gorzny (rating 1441 vs 1506).
- Note: Axel Nefve makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Axel Nefve | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (5) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-11.9 | 11-12.3 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 36.1% | 37.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Axel Nefve
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Alexander Petrov M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Cruz Hewitt M25 Southaven |
1-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/07 | Jerrid Gaines Jr M15 Rochester |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Nathan Cox M15 Rochester |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Matthew Thomson M15 Rochester |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Jeffrey John Wolf M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Thanaphat Boosarawongse M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/03 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Miyazaki · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/03 | Emile Hudd M15 Tsukuba · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/03 | Hunter Heck M15 Nishi-Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Borna Gojo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 04/08 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Maxwell Exsted M25 Edwardsville |
0-2 | 1-8 | L |
| 21/07 | Borna Gojo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Gavin Young Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Landon Ardila M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Joshua Sheehy M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Axel Nefve vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 70% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.