Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 04/08, 09:00

Prediction: Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals vs Denislava Glushkova

Team pages: Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals · Denislava Glushkova

Prediction summary

Winner

23% 77%

Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals Denislava Glushkova

Estimated games

21.4

Recent form · 10 last

Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals 4-6 (W-L)

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Denislava Glushkova 5-5 (W-L)

LWWWLLWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals 1434 · Denislava Glushkova 1509

	Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals	Denislava Glushkova
Our model	39%	61%
Market	9%	91%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denislava Glushkova (rating 1434 vs 1509).
Denislava Glushkova is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Note: Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals makes many double faults (4.2/match).

Statistics

	Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals	Denislava Glushkova
Win %	20%	50%
Win % · Clay	33% (6)	33% (3)
Sets (G-P)	0.7-1.7	1.1-1.2
Games (G-P)	8.6-12.9	10.1-10.3
Aces	0.3	0.3
Double faults	4.2	2.5
1st serve %	50.7%	52.9%
Break %	50.4%	58%

Estimated total games (ours) 21.4

Odds Bet365

110.50

21.02

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.50 → 10.50	Bet365 10.50
2	1.02 → 1.02	Bet365 1.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
20:30 +4’	10.50	1.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
03/08	Aya El Aouni W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	3-12	L
28/07	Ustiniya Lekomtseva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	0-12	L
22/07	Noemi Maines W15 Gran Canaria	1-2	15-18	L
10/02	Midori Castillo Meza W15 Manacor	0-2	2-11	L
13/11	Cristina Diaz Adrover ITF W15 Nules · Clay	1-2	9-18	L
11/11	Ginebra Zoe Dominguez Riveros ITF W15 Nules · Clay	2-0	12-4	W
20/10	Stefaniya Pushkar ITF W15 Villena · Hard	1-2	15-17	L
07/10	Neus Torner Sensano ITF W35 Seville · Clay	0-2	9-13	L
06/10	Aleksandra Pozarenko ITF W35 Seville · Clay	2-1	9-10	W
30/09	Noelia Bouzo Zanotti ITF W50 Baza	0-2	12-14	L

Denislava Glushkova

LWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
25/07	Dayeon Back W50 Horb	0-2	2-10	L
24/07	Lola Giza W50 Horb	2-1	18-11	W
23/07	Anouck Vrancken Peeters W50 Horb	2-1	17-10	W
22/07	Amy Sucha W50 Horb	2-0	14-10	W
15/07	Selena Janicijevic W50 Darmstadt	0-2	7-12	L
07/07	Berfu Cengiz W100 Aschaffenburg	0-2	3-12	L
06/07	Carla Markus W100 Aschaffenburg	2-0	12-2	W
30/06	Luisa Meyer Auf Der Heide W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay	1-2	12-17	L
29/06	Diana Marcinkevica W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay	2-0	13-7	W
18/06	Selena Janicijevic W50 Haskovo · ~Clay	0-2	3-12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals vs Denislava Glushkova?

Our model gives 77% to Denislava Glushkova, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.