Tennis · M15 Astana · 05/08, 07:00
Prediction: Alibek Kachmazov vs Sora Fukuda
Team pages: Sora Fukuda
Prediction summary
Winner
Alibek Kachmazov
Sora Fukuda
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Alibek Kachmazov
9-1 (W-L)
Sora Fukuda
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alibek Kachmazov 1591 · Sora Fukuda 1538
| Alibek Kachmazov | Sora Fukuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alibek Kachmazov (rating 1591 vs 1538).
- Alibek Kachmazov dominates on serve: 7 aces and 57.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Alibek Kachmazov | Sora Fukuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-7.6 | 13.1-11.1 |
| Aces | 7 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 83.6% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 49.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alibek Kachmazov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04 | Anton Arzhankin M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/04 | Marek Gengel M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/04 | Fares Zakaria M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 23/04 | Semen Pankin M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/04 | Cedric Stanke M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/04 | Maximilian Neuchrist M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/04 | Gauthier Onclin M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Nicolas Robert M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/04 | Skander Mansouri M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/04 | Leo Lagarrigue M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
Sora Fukuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Sergey Petrov M15 Astana |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Shintaro Imai M15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Yusuke Takahashi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 02/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Shunsuke Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Hyu Kawanishi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/05 | Evan Zhu M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 29/05 | Koki Matsuda M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/05 | Yuta Tomida M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alibek Kachmazov vs Sora Fukuda?
Our model gives 62% to Alibek Kachmazov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.