Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 30/07, 09:00

Prediction: Marianne Argyrokastriti vs Andrea Obradovic

Team pages: Marianne Argyrokastriti · Andrea Obradovic

Prediction summary

Winner

46% 54%

Marianne Argyrokastriti Andrea Obradovic

Estimated games

20.9

Recent form · 10 last

Marianne Argyrokastriti 6-4 (W-L)

WWWWLLLWLW

Andrea Obradovic 7-3 (W-L)

WWWLWWWLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marianne Argyrokastriti 1550 · Andrea Obradovic 1617

	Marianne Argyrokastriti	Andrea Obradovic
Our model	40%	60%
Market	50%	50%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Obradovic (rating 1550 vs 1617).
Note: Andrea Obradovic makes many double faults (4.3/match).

Statistics

	Marianne Argyrokastriti	Andrea Obradovic
Win %	70%	90%
Win % · Clay	78% (9)	90% (10)
Sets (G-P)	1.4-0.9	1.8-0.4
Games (G-P)	10.2-8.5	12.9-8.4
Aces	0.6	3
Double faults	3.9	4.3
1st serve %	61.9%	70%
Break %	53.1%	68%

Estimated total games (ours) 20.9

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
17:23 +10’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marianne Argyrokastriti

LWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
28/07	Alessia Antici W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-4	W
24/07	Federica Sacco W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	5-12	L
23/07	Lucie Urbanova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-1	15-14	W
22/07	Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-1	15-14	W
13/07	Lilli Tagger WTA Athens · Hard	0-2	2-12	L
21/06	Amelie Justine Hejtmanek W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	5-12	L
20/06	Ksenia Zaytseva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-1	12-11	W
19/06	Ana Giraldi Requena W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-1	W
18/06	Doroteja Petrovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
17/06	Milica Stosovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-3	W

Andrea Obradovic

WWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
29/07	Lya Fernandez W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
23/07	Emma Ottavia Ghirardato W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	10-13	L
22/07	Maria Golovina W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-1	17-12	W
20/07	Mathilde Ngijol Carre W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	13-7	W
12/07	Mia Horvit UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay	2-0	13-8	W
11/07	Andrea Nova UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay	2-0	13-7	W
09/07	Alessandra Teodosescu UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay	2-1	14-14	W
08/07	Ida Clement UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay	2-0	13-6	W
07/07	Mia Chudejova UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay	2-0	12-8	W
06/07	Khrystyna Vozniak UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Clay	2-0	12-7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marianne Argyrokastriti vs Andrea Obradovic?

Our model gives 54% to Andrea Obradovic, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.