Tennis · ATP Washington · 30/07, 00:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Adrian Mannarino
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Adrian Mannarino
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Adrian Mannarino
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
9-1 (W-L)
Adrian Mannarino
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
2–1
Adrian Mannarino
(3 last)
- 04 Apr2-1 18-13W
- 25 Jun2-0 13-10W
- 23 Jul0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1578 · Adrian Mannarino 1497
| Alex Michelsen | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1578 vs 1497).
- Alex Michelsen is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex Michelsen 2–1 Adrian Mannarino (3).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-8.9 | 11.5-11.8 |
| Aces | 5 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 56.1% | 59.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.8
Over 21.5: 69% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 31% · 1.90
H2H · Alex Michelsen 2 – 1 Adrian Mannarino (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 2–1 Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/25 ATP Houston | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/06/24 ATP Mallorca | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07/23 ATP Newport | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Learner Tien ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Titouan Droguet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Jakub Mensik ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 13/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Adrian Mannarino?
Our model gives 66% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.