Tennis · ATP Washington · 31/07, 17:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
7-3 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1573 · Lorenzo Musetti 1543
| Rafael Jodar | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Rafael Jodar dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 45.4% break avg.
- Note: Rafael Jodar makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.3-1.3 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 19.4-15 | 11-10 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 31.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.9
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Arthur Fils ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-20 | L |
| 02/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-22 | W |
| 29/06 | Felix Gill Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 26-17 | W |
| 29/05 | Alex Michelsen French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-25 | W |
| 27/05 | James Duckworth French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 25/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
Lorenzo Musetti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/04 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/04 | Arthur Fils ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Corentin Moutet ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/04 | Martin Landaluce ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 59% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.