Tennis · ATP Washington · 31/07, 17:00
Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen
Team pages: Taylor Fritz · Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Taylor Fritz
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taylor Fritz
5-5 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Taylor Fritz
0–2
Alex Michelsen
(2 last)
- 09 Mar0-2 10-13L
- 22 May1-2 15-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taylor Fritz 1559 · Alex Michelsen 1619
| Taylor Fritz | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1559 vs 1619).
- Head-to-head: Taylor Fritz 0–2 Alex Michelsen (2).
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (8) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.8 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 16-13.1 | 13.5-9.4 |
| Aces | 16.3 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 81.9% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 31.7% | 55.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.7
Over 22.5: 74% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 26% · 1.90
H2H · Taylor Fritz 0 – 2 Alex Michelsen (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taylor Fritz 0–2 Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/05/24 ATP Geneva | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/07 | Zizou Bergs ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 02/07 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 56% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.