Tennis · M25 Bolzano · 28/07, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Carboni vs Gabriele Crivellaro
Team pages: Lorenzo Carboni · Gabriele Crivellaro
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Carboni
Gabriele Crivellaro
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Carboni
7-3 (W-L)
Gabriele Crivellaro
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Carboni
1–0
Gabriele Crivellaro
(1 last)
- 25 Jul2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Carboni 1542 · Gabriele Crivellaro 1449
| Lorenzo Carboni | Gabriele Crivellaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Carboni (rating 1542 vs 1449).
- Lorenzo Carboni is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Carboni 1–0 Gabriele Crivellaro (1).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Carboni | Gabriele Crivellaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 0.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10 | 8.2-11 |
| Aces | 1 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 61.5% | 34.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
H2H · Lorenzo Carboni 1 – 0 Gabriele Crivellaro (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Carboni 1–0 Gabriele Crivellaro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/25 M15 Segrate | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Alessandro Dragoni M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/07 | Matteo Trombini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Jelle Sels Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/05 | Li Tu Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 19/05 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 17/05 | Samuel Vincent Ruggeri Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 11/05 | Laslo Djere Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Gabriele Crivellaro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/07 | Oleg Prihodko Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Michael Bassem Sobhy Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/07 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Georgii Kravchenko M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/03 | Nik Mikovic M15 Rovinj · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Federico Arnaboldi M25 Trento · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 16/02 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Trento · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/02 | Andrea Zanini M25 Trento · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/02 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Cesenatico · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Carboni vs Gabriele Crivellaro?
Our model gives 77% to Lorenzo Carboni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.