Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 26/07, 18:00
Prediction: Matteo Martineau vs Luka Pavlovic
Team pages: Matteo Martineau · Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Martineau
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Martineau
6-4 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Martineau 1489 · Luka Pavlovic 1543
| Matteo Martineau | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luka Pavlovic (rating 1489 vs 1543).
- Note: Matteo Martineau makes many double faults (4/match).
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Martineau | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-10 | 11.9-10.7 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 4 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 52.6% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Martineau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Oliver Crawford Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 24/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/07 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Iliyan Radulov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Luca Wiedenmann Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Daniel Salazar Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Martineau vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 61% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.