Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 24/07, 11:00
Prediction: Matteo Martineau vs Yanki Erel
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Martineau
Yanki Erel
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Martineau
4-6 (W-L)
Yanki Erel
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Martineau 1478 · Yanki Erel 1586
| Matteo Martineau | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1478 vs 1586).
- Yanki Erel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matteo Martineau | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.1 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-10.1 | 12.9-9.5 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Martineau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/07 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Iliyan Radulov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Luca Wiedenmann Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Daniel Salazar Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Yanki Erel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/07 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Oliver Crawford M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Aren Baybars M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/07 | Iliyan Radulov M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Gianluca Carlini M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/07 | Noah Regas M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Martineau vs Yanki Erel?
Our model gives 62% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.