Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 24/07, 11:00
Prediction: Luka Pavlovic vs Mert Alkaya
Prediction summary
Winner
Luka Pavlovic
Mert Alkaya
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Luka Pavlovic
4-6 (W-L)
Mert Alkaya
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luka Pavlovic 1510 · Mert Alkaya 1504
| Luka Pavlovic | Mert Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Luka Pavlovic | Mert Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.7 | 12.6-10.9 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 39.1% | 41.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Lajal Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Mert Alkaya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Akira Santillan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Francisco Rocha M25 Porto |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/06 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Porto |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 25/06 | Ivan Dreycopp M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Robin Catry M25 Porto |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luka Pavlovic vs Mert Alkaya?
Our model gives 52% to Mert Alkaya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.