Tennis · ATP Estoril · 24/07, 14:30
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Luca Van Assche
Estimated games
26
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
7-3 (W-L)
Luca Van Assche
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrey Rublev
1–0
Luca Van Assche
(1 last)
- 31 Jul2-1 16-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1586 · Luca Van Assche 1585
| Andrey Rublev | Luca Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Andrey Rublev 1–0 Luca Van Assche (1).
- Note: Luca Van Assche makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Luca Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.1 | 1.8-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.7-14 | 14.6-10.4 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 75.1% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 32.8% | 54.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26
H2H · Andrey Rublev 1 – 0 Luca Van Assche (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrey Rublev 1–0 Luca Van Assche
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/24 ATP Washington | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 24-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 27/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-16 | W |
Luca Van Assche
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 15/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 20/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 15-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche?
Our model gives 65% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.