Tennis · ATP Estoril · 24/07, 14:00
Prediction: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Tiago Torres
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Tiago Torres
8-2 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tiago Torres 1584 · Hugo Gaston 1551
| Tiago Torres | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Tiago Torres makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Tiago Torres | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (2) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.2 | 13.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 3 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tiago Torres
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Patrick Schoen M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Lucca Liu M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Lui Maxted M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Porto |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Jan Choinski Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 11/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 10/07 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Federico Cina Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 60% to Hugo Gaston, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.