Tennis · W35 Saskatoon · 23/07, 21:30
Prediction: Lilian Poling vs Emma Dong
Prediction summary
Winner
Lilian Poling
Emma Dong
Estimated games
18.9
Recent form · 10 last
Lilian Poling
4-6 (W-L)
Emma Dong
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lilian Poling
0–1
Emma Dong
(1 last)
- 13 Jul0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lilian Poling 1515 · Emma Dong 1576
| Lilian Poling | Emma Dong | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emma Dong (rating 1515 vs 1576).
- Head-to-head: Lilian Poling 0–1 Emma Dong (1).
Statistics
| Lilian Poling | Emma Dong | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-9 | 11.4-5.5 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 58.5% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 54% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
18.9
H2H · Lilian Poling 0 – 1 Emma Dong (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lilian Poling 0–1 Emma Dong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/26 W75 Granby | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lilian Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Alexandra Vagramov W35 Saskatoon |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/07 | Emma Dong W75 Granby |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Maria Sara Popa W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Joulia Cristiana Cirstea W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/05 | Esther Adeshina W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Urszula Radwanska W35 Nottingham |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 04/05 | Lara Savic W35 Nottingham Qual |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/05 | Zarah Mughal W35 Nottingham Qual |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 29/04 | Kolie Allen W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Aleksandra Mateva W35 Nottingham |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Emma Dong
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Mio Mushika W35 Saskatoon |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 14/07 | Ariana Arseneault W75 Granby |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Lilian Poling W75 Granby |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Mariya Dobreva W75 Granby |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/06 | Alexia Jacobs UTR Pro Seattle Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/06 | Gabriella Davydov UTR Pro Seattle Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 18/06 | Sofia De Looze UTR Pro Seattle Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Bhakti Shah UTR Pro Seattle Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Natalie Lynch UTR Pro Seattle Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/01 | Dalayna Hewitt UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lilian Poling vs Emma Dong?
Our model gives 69% to Emma Dong, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.