Tennis · ATP Estoril · 23/07, 13:00
Prediction: Jaime Faria vs Gonzalo Bueno
Prediction summary
Winner
Jaime Faria
Gonzalo Bueno
Estimated games
25.2
Recent form · 10 last
Jaime Faria
7-3 (W-L)
Gonzalo Bueno
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jaime Faria 1551 · Gonzalo Bueno 1507
| Jaime Faria | Gonzalo Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jaime Faria (rating 1551 vs 1507).
- Jaime Faria dominates on serve: 10.3 aces and 48.4% break avg.
- Note: Jaime Faria makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Jaime Faria | Gonzalo Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.3-13.5 | 11.5-12.5 |
| Aces | 10.3 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.8% | 62.5% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jaime Faria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Casper Ruud ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/07 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Sho Shimabukuro Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-19 | W |
| 25/06 | Rei Sakamoto Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 24/06 | Luka Pavlovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Grenier Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Moez Echargui Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Gonzalo Bueno
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Tiago Pereira ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/07 | Francisco Rocha ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Igor Marcondes ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Laslo Djere Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Tomasz Berkieta Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jaime Faria vs Gonzalo Bueno?
Our model gives 70% to Jaime Faria, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.