Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 23/07, 11:00
Prediction: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Moro Canas
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Moro Canas
5-5 (W-L)
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Moro Canas 1524 · Ivan Marrero Curbelo 1650
| Alejandro Moro Canas | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ivan Marrero Curbelo (rating 1524 vs 1650).
- Ivan Marrero Curbelo is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Note: Ivan Marrero Curbelo makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alejandro Moro Canas | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 2-0.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-14 | 12-6.6 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 38.1% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Moro Canas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 25/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Harold Mayot Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Francisco Comesana Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 15/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 09/06 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 05/06 | Henri Squire Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 02/06 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Enrique Collar Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Keshav Chopra M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Nicolas Tepmahc M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Volodymyr Iakubenko M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Rafael Giotis M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Laurence Teunissen M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Maxwell McKennon M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Dinko Dinev M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Moro Canas vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo?
Our model gives 54% to Alejandro Moro Canas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.