Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 23/07, 11:00
Prediction: Matteo Martineau vs Gonzalo Villanueva
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Martineau
Gonzalo Villanueva
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Martineau
3-7 (W-L)
Gonzalo Villanueva
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Martineau 1490 · Gonzalo Villanueva 1585
| Matteo Martineau | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gonzalo Villanueva (rating 1490 vs 1585).
- Note: Matteo Martineau makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Martineau | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-10.5 | 12.6-9.5 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 37.5% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Martineau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Iliyan Radulov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Luca Wiedenmann Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Daniel Salazar Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 08/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Gonzalo Villanueva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 17/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/07 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Giammarco Gandolfi Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/07 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 06/07 | Lorenzo Bocchi Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Jozef Kovalik Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Martineau vs Gonzalo Villanueva?
Our model gives 51% to Gonzalo Villanueva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.