Tennis · ATP Estoril · 23/07, 13:00
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Timofey Skatov
Estimated games
26.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
7-3 (W-L)
Timofey Skatov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1590 · Timofey Skatov 1518
| Andrey Rublev | Timofey Skatov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Rublev (rating 1590 vs 1518).
- Note: Andrey Rublev makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Timofey Skatov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 18-15.6 | 12.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 9.7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 32% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 24-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 27/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-16 | W |
| 25/05 | Ignacio Buse French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-18 | W |
Timofey Skatov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Joao Domingues ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 13/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 12/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Anirudh Chandrasekar ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Elias Ymer Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Alex Barrena Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov?
Our model gives 76% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.