Tennis · ATP Estoril · 23/07, 13:00
Prediction: Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Van Assche
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
25.9
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Van Assche
5-5 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Van Assche
1–0
Pablo Carreno Busta
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Van Assche 1592 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1540
| Luca Van Assche | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Van Assche (rating 1592 vs 1540).
- Head-to-head: Luca Van Assche 1–0 Pablo Carreno Busta (1).
- Note: Luca Van Assche makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Luca Van Assche | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 1.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-9.6 | 15.5-14.4 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 5 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 54.6% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.9
H2H · Luca Van Assche 1 – 0 Pablo Carreno Busta (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Van Assche 1–0 Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/25 Challenger Olbia | 2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Van Assche
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 15/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 20/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 15-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 25/05 | Jiri Lehecka French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/05 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 12/05 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/05 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 54% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.