Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 22/07, 19:00
Prediction: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Keegan Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Keegan Smith
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Keegan Smith
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
1–0
Keegan Smith
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1523 · Keegan Smith 1571
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keegan Smith (rating 1523 vs 1571).
- Keegan Smith dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 50.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1–0 Keegan Smith (1).
Statistics
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.4 | 12.5-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 52.3% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1 – 0 Keegan Smith (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1–0 Keegan Smith
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/24 M25 Vale do Lobo | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/07 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matthew Summers M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Porto |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Robin Catry M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Alejandro Arcila M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
Keegan Smith
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Keegan Smith?
Our model gives 68% to Keegan Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.