Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 23/07, 11:00
Prediction: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Yi Zhou
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Yi Zhou
7-3 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yi Zhou 1522 · Luka Pavlovic 1485
| Yi Zhou | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Yi Zhou dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 50.3% break avg.
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Yi Zhou | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 57% (7) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.4 | 11.3-12.3 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 50.3% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Michael Geerts Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 14/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/07 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel De Jonge Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Robin Catry Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-20 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefano Travaglia Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/06 | Guy Den Ouden Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Lajal Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 56% to Yi Zhou, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.