Tennis · W35 Saskatoon · 22/07, 19:00
Prediction: Alexandra Vagramov vs Lilian Poling
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandra Vagramov
Lilian Poling
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandra Vagramov
5-5 (W-L)
Lilian Poling
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandra Vagramov 1537 · Lilian Poling 1531
| Alexandra Vagramov | Lilian Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Alexandra Vagramov makes many double faults (10.1/match).
Statistics
| Alexandra Vagramov | Lilian Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-10.6 | 9.6-8.4 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 10.1 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 59.2% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 54.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandra Vagramov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Sakura Hosogi W75 Granby |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Ekaterina Ovcharenko W75 Granby |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Maria Aytoyan W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/06 | Alexis Nguyen W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Thara Gowda W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Sophie Suh W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Armira Kockinis W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Alina Shcherbinina W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Veronika Miroshnichenko W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/06 | Ingrid C Millan W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Lilian Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Emma Dong W75 Granby |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Maria Sara Popa W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Joulia Cristiana Cirstea W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/05 | Esther Adeshina W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Urszula Radwanska W35 Nottingham |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 04/05 | Lara Savic W35 Nottingham Qual |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/05 | Zarah Mughal W35 Nottingham Qual |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 29/04 | Kolie Allen W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Aleksandra Mateva W35 Nottingham |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/04 | Eloise Newberry W35 Nottingham |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandra Vagramov vs Lilian Poling?
Our model gives 65% to Alexandra Vagramov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.