Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 21/07, 10:00
Prediction: Takuya Kumasaka vs Luka Pavlovic
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Prediction summary
Winner
Takuya Kumasaka
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Takuya Kumasaka
7-3 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Takuya Kumasaka 1537 · Luka Pavlovic 1479
| Takuya Kumasaka | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Takuya Kumasaka (rating 1537 vs 1479).
- Takuya Kumasaka is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Takuya Kumasaka | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-10.3 | 11-13.3 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 7 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.2% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 56.8% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Takuya Kumasaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Asier Meneses Perny Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/07 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Robin Bertrand M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Alvaro Jimenez M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 11/06 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Lajal Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Takuya Kumasaka vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 58% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.