Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 21/07, 17:00
Prediction: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Facundo Mena
Prediction summary
Winner
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Facundo Mena
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
9-1 (W-L)
Facundo Mena
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ivan Marrero Curbelo 1670 · Facundo Mena 1475
| Ivan Marrero Curbelo | Facundo Mena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 25% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ivan Marrero Curbelo (rating 1670 vs 1475).
- Ivan Marrero Curbelo is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Note: Ivan Marrero Curbelo makes many double faults (4.3/match).
- Note: Facundo Mena makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Ivan Marrero Curbelo | Facundo Mena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.1 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-6.3 | 11.8-12.4 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 29.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Enrique Collar Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Keshav Chopra M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Nicolas Tepmahc M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Volodymyr Iakubenko M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Rafael Giotis M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Laurence Teunissen M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Maxwell McKennon M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Dinko Dinev M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-1 | W |
| 12/06 | Keshav Chopra M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Facundo Mena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/07 | Tristan McCormick Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Santos · Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 05/05 | Daniel Dutra Da Silva Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/04 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/04 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 03/04 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/04 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Facundo Mena?
Our model gives 57% to Ivan Marrero Curbelo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.