Tennis · ATP Estoril · 21/07, 14:30
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Kyrian Jacquet
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Kyrian Jacquet
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
8-2 (W-L)
Kyrian Jacquet
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1–1
Kyrian Jacquet
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1593 · Kyrian Jacquet 1521
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Kyrian Jacquet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Merida Aguilar (rating 1593 vs 1521).
- Kyrian Jacquet dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 40.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Kyrian Jacquet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.8 | 13-11.8 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 77.3% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 40.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1 – 1 Kyrian Jacquet (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1–1 Kyrian Jacquet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/25 Challenger Lyon | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/03/23 ITF M25 Palmanova | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 13/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Kyrian Jacquet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Taro Daniel ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/07 | Goncalo Da Rosa Castro ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Vilius Gaubas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/06 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/06 | Grigor Dimitrov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Kyrian Jacquet?
Our model gives 65% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.