Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 20/07, 16:00
Prediction: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Miguel Tobon
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Miguel Tobon
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1482 · Miguel Tobon 1441
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mario Gonzalez Fernandez (rating 1482 vs 1441).
Statistics
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-11 | 11.3-12.9 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 3 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.1% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 53% | 50.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/07 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matthew Summers M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Porto |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Robin Catry M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Alejandro Arcila M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Miguel Tobon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Mika Brunold Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/05 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 13/05 | Andrea Collarini Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon?
Our model gives 55% to Miguel Tobon, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.