Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 20/07, 16:00
Prediction: Mert Alkaya vs Juan Pablo Ficovich
Prediction summary
Winner
Mert Alkaya
Juan Pablo Ficovich
Estimated games
25.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mert Alkaya
3-7 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Ficovich
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mert Alkaya 1486 · Juan Pablo Ficovich 1415
| Mert Alkaya | Juan Pablo Ficovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mert Alkaya (rating 1486 vs 1415).
- Juan Pablo Ficovich dominates on serve: 7 aces and 41% break avg.
- Mert Alkaya is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mert Alkaya | Juan Pablo Ficovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 10% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (2) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 0.9-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-11.3 | 13.2-15.6 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 7 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mert Alkaya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Francisco Rocha M25 Porto |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/06 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Porto |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 25/06 | Ivan Dreycopp M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Robin Catry M25 Porto |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 07/06 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Michalis Sakellaridis ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Juan Pablo Ficovich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Aziz Ouakaa Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 08/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Keegan Smith Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 07/06 | Martin Damm ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Thijmen Loof ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/05 | Stefano Travaglia French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 13/05 | Jan Choinski Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 04/05 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mert Alkaya vs Juan Pablo Ficovich?
Our model gives 55% to Mert Alkaya, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.