Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 21/07, 16:00
Prediction: Alastair Gray vs Akira Santillan
Prediction summary
Winner
Alastair Gray
Akira Santillan
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Alastair Gray
5-5 (W-L)
Akira Santillan
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alastair Gray 1520 · Akira Santillan 1482
| Alastair Gray | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Akira Santillan makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Alastair Gray | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 56% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-9 | 10.9-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 30.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alastair Gray
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Patrick Brady Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/07 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | James Watt Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/06 | Henry Jefferson Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/07 | Alejandro Lopez Escribano Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 28/06 | Alejandro Mateo Berge Nourescu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alastair Gray vs Akira Santillan?
Our model gives 63% to Alastair Gray, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.