Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 21/07, 16:00
Prediction: Yanki Erel vs Sergey Fomin
Prediction summary
Winner
Yanki Erel
Sergey Fomin
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Yanki Erel
9-1 (W-L)
Sergey Fomin
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yanki Erel 1607 · Sergey Fomin 1469
| Yanki Erel | Sergey Fomin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1607 vs 1469).
- Yanki Erel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Sergey Fomin makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Yanki Erel | Sergey Fomin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-7.7 | 10-11 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 5 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 54.6% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yanki Erel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Oliver Crawford M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Aren Baybars M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/07 | Iliyan Radulov M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Gianluca Carlini M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/07 | Noah Regas M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 30/05 | Vadym Ursu M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Sergey Fomin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Alberto Lim Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Bill Chan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/06 | Olle Wallin Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 28/06 | Mircea-Alexandru Jecan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Cyril Vandermeersch M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yanki Erel vs Sergey Fomin?
Our model gives 67% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.