Tennis · Challenger Segovia · 19/07, 13:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Alexander Vasilev
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Alexander Vasilev
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
3-7 (W-L)
Alexander Vasilev
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1443 · Alexander Vasilev 1541
| Luca Castelnuovo | Alexander Vasilev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Vasilev (rating 1443 vs 1541).
- Alexander Vasilev is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alexander Vasilev makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Alexander Vasilev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-12.2 | 11.7-9.3 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 36.9% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Fares Zakaria Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/06 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Semen Pankin Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Alexander Vasilev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Niels Visker Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 10/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Denis Klok M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 30/05 | Simeon Stankovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/05 | Stefan Popovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Anton Arzhankin M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Alexander Vasilev?
Our model gives 60% to Alexander Vasilev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.