Tennis · ATP Estoril · 21/07, 13:00
Prediction: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Vilius Gaubas
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
27
Recent form · 10 last
Vilius Gaubas
3-7 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Vilius Gaubas
0–1
Pablo Carreno Busta
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vilius Gaubas 1455 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1538
| Vilius Gaubas | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pablo Carreno Busta (rating 1455 vs 1538).
- Head-to-head: Vilius Gaubas 0–1 Pablo Carreno Busta (1).
Statistics
| Vilius Gaubas | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 17% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.8 | 1.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-15.2 | 15.5-14.6 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 28.1% | 36.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27
H2H · Vilius Gaubas 0 – 1 Pablo Carreno Busta (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilius Gaubas 0–1 Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/25 Challenger Tenerife | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vilius Gaubas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 24/06 | Henry Searle Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Michael Mmoh Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Luca Van Assche French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 17-21 | L |
Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 25/05 | Jiri Lehecka French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/05 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 12/05 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/05 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Martin Damm ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 65% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.