Tennis · ATP Estoril · 19/07, 13:00
Prediction: Andrea Pellegrino vs Gonzalo Bueno
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Pellegrino
Gonzalo Bueno
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Pellegrino
5-5 (W-L)
Gonzalo Bueno
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Pellegrino 1531 · Gonzalo Bueno 1457
| Andrea Pellegrino | Gonzalo Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Pellegrino (rating 1531 vs 1457).
- Andrea Pellegrino is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Andrea Pellegrino | Gonzalo Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.5 | 9.8-12.1 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 58.9% |
| Break % | 50.9% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Pellegrino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Joao Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 07/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jay Clarke Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 05/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Gonzalo Bueno
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Francisco Rocha ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Igor Marcondes ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Laslo Djere Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Tomasz Berkieta Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 02/06 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Pellegrino vs Gonzalo Bueno?
Our model gives 65% to Andrea Pellegrino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.