Tennis · M15 Rochester · 17/07, 21:30
Prediction: Axel Nefve vs Jerrid Gaines Jr
Prediction summary
Winner
Axel Nefve
Jerrid Gaines Jr
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Axel Nefve
3-7 (W-L)
Jerrid Gaines Jr
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Axel Nefve 1427 · Jerrid Gaines Jr 1474
| Axel Nefve | Jerrid Gaines Jr | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jerrid Gaines Jr (rating 1427 vs 1474).
- Note: Axel Nefve makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Jerrid Gaines Jr makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Axel Nefve | Jerrid Gaines Jr | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 13% (8) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-13.5 | 11.5-11.6 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.6% | 65.7% |
| Break % | 36.6% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Axel Nefve
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Nathan Cox M15 Rochester |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Matthew Thomson M15 Rochester |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Jeffrey John Wolf M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Thanaphat Boosarawongse M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/03 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Miyazaki · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/03 | Emile Hudd M15 Tsukuba · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/03 | Hunter Heck M15 Nishi-Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 18/03 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Nishi-Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 10/03 | Shinji Hazawa M15 Hinode · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 19/02 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Metepec · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Jerrid Gaines Jr
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Drew Fishback M15 Rochester |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/07 | Andrew Delgado M15 Rochester |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 14/04 | Yannik Alvarez M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/04 | Jack Kennedy M15 Boca Raton |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 08/04 | Alexander Kotzen M15 Boca Raton |
1-1 | 8-9 | L |
| 18/02 | Pierre Delage M15 Naples · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Freddie Ridout M15 Naples · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/02 | Mwendwa Mbithi M15 Sunrise |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/02 | Fermin Tenti M15 Palm Coast |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 04/02 | John Hallquist Lithen M15 Palm Coast |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Axel Nefve vs Jerrid Gaines Jr?
Our model gives 51% to Jerrid Gaines Jr, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.