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Tennis · W35 Dallas · 16/07, 18:30

Prediction: Jia-Jing Lu vs Alina Shcherbinina

Prediction summary
Winner
39% 61%
Jia-Jing Lu Alina Shcherbinina
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Jia-Jing Lu 4-6 (W-L)
WWLLLLLWLW
Alina Shcherbinina 8-2 (W-L)
WWWWWWWLLW
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jia-Jing Lu 1488 · Alina Shcherbinina 1606
Jia-Jing LuAlina Shcherbinina
Our model34%66%
Market44%56%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

  • Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alina Shcherbinina (rating 1488 vs 1606).
  • Alina Shcherbinina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
  • Note: Jia-Jing Lu makes many double faults (4.8/match).
  • Note: Alina Shcherbinina makes many double faults (4.9/match).

Statistics

Jia-Jing LuAlina Shcherbinina
Win %50%90%
Win % · Hard 43% (7) 100% (4)
Sets (G-P)1.1-1.11.8-0.3
Games (G-P)10.2-9.912.1-6.4
Aces1.31.1
Double faults4.84.9
1st serve %62.4%72%
Break %36.4%51.6%
Estimated total games (ours) 19.8

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jia-Jing Lu

WLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
15/07 Hong Yi Cody Wong
W35 Dallas
 2-0 12-4 W
09/07 Sara Daavettila
W50 Columbus
 0-2 7-13 L
08/07 Monika Ekstrand
W50 Columbus
 2-0 12-6 W
18/06 Chenting Zhu
W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard
 1-2 16-16 L
16/06 Wushuang Zheng
W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard
 2-1 17-12 W
02/06 Jiaqi Wang
W50 Wuning · ~Hard
 0-2 3-12 L
27/05 Han Shi
W35 Wuning · ~Hard
 0-2 6-12 L
23/05 Dayeon Back
W35 Changwon · ~Hard
 0-2 4-12 L
22/05 Naho Sato
W35 Changwon · ~Hard
 2-0 13-7 W
20/05 Ya-Yi Yang
W35 Changwon · ~Hard
 2-0 12-5 W

Alina Shcherbinina

WWWLW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
15/07 Kira Matushkina
W35 Dallas
 2-0 12-2 W
12/07 Veronika Miroshnichenko
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
 0-2 7-12 L
11/07 Jo Yee Chan
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
 2-1 16-15 W
10/07 Alyssa Ahn
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
 2-0 12-3 W
09/07 Vesa Gjinaj
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
 2-0 12-4 W
08/07 Kingsley Wolf
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
 2-0 12-2 W
05/07 Kate Fakih
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
 2-0 13-9 W
04/07 Salma Ewing
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
 2-0 12-4 W
03/07 Jo Yee Chan
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
 2-0 12-5 W
02/07 Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
 2-0 13-8 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jia-Jing Lu vs Alina Shcherbinina?

Our model gives 61% to Alina Shcherbinina, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.