Tennis · W35 Dallas · 15/07, 20:00

Prediction: Kira Matushkina vs Alina Shcherbinina

Prediction summary
Winner
27% 73%
Kira Matushkina Alina Shcherbinina
Estimated games
19.6
Recent form · 10 last
Kira Matushkina 5-5 (W-L)
LWWLWLWLLW
Alina Shcherbinina 8-2 (W-L)
WWWWWWWWLL
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kira Matushkina 1499 · Alina Shcherbinina 1622
Kira MatushkinaAlina Shcherbinina
Our model33%67%
Market22%78%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

  • Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alina Shcherbinina (rating 1499 vs 1622).
  • Alina Shcherbinina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
  • Note: Alina Shcherbinina makes many double faults (4.9/match).

Statistics

Kira MatushkinaAlina Shcherbinina
Win %50%90%
Win % · Hard 50% (2) 100% (5)
Sets (G-P)1.2-1.11.8-0.3
Games (G-P)10.6-8.512.2-6.8
Aces0.31.3
Double faults2.54.9
1st serve %56.5%70.9%
Break %51.1%51.4%
Estimated total games (ours) 19.6

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kira Matushkina

LWLLW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
14/07 Katherine Hui
W35 Dallas
2-0 12-5 W
08/07 Rebecca Marino
W50 Columbus
0-2 4-12 L
07/07 Capucine Jauffret
W50 Columbus
1-2 11-16 L
06/07 Amiya Bowles
W50 Columbus
2-0 12-0 W
27/05 Lea Ma
W35 Wichita · ~Hard
0-2 3-12 L
26/05 Amaliia Elizarova
W35 Wichita · ~Hard
2-0 12-0 W
13/05 Eryn Cayetano
W35 Bethany Beach · ~Clay
0-2 7-13 L
12/05 Daniella Sales
W35 Bethany Beach · ~Clay
2-0 12-2 W
05/12 Ruien Zhang
ITF W35 Daytona Beach
1-2 16-14 L
04/12 Maya Iyengar
ITF W35 Daytona Beach
2-1 17-11 W

Alina Shcherbinina

WWWWL

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
12/07 Veronika Miroshnichenko
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
0-2 7-12 L
11/07 Jo Yee Chan
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
2-1 16-15 W
10/07 Alyssa Ahn
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
2-0 12-3 W
09/07 Vesa Gjinaj
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
2-0 12-4 W
08/07 Kingsley Wolf
W15 Rancho Santa Fe
2-0 12-2 W
05/07 Kate Fakih
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
2-0 13-9 W
04/07 Salma Ewing
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
2-0 12-4 W
03/07 Jo Yee Chan
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
2-0 12-5 W
02/07 Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
2-0 13-8 W
02/07 Kayla Chung
W15 San Diego · ~Hard
2-0 13-6 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kira Matushkina vs Alina Shcherbinina?

Our model gives 73% to Alina Shcherbinina, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.