Tennis · M25 Uriage · 15/07, 11:30
Prediction: Mathys Picard vs Laurin Aerne
Prediction summary
Winner
Mathys Picard
Laurin Aerne
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Mathys Picard
7-3 (W-L)
Laurin Aerne
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mathys Picard
1–0
Laurin Aerne
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mathys Picard 1566 · Laurin Aerne 1445
| Mathys Picard | Laurin Aerne | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mathys Picard (rating 1566 vs 1445).
- Mathys Picard is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mathys Picard 1–0 Laurin Aerne (1).
Statistics
| Mathys Picard | Laurin Aerne | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-9.3 | 9.5-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 68% |
| Break % | 39.2% | 42.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Mathys Picard 1 – 0 Laurin Aerne (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mathys Picard 1–0 Laurin Aerne
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/26 M25 Uriage | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathys Picard
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Laurin Aerne M25 Uriage |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/07 | Robinson Le Meur M25 Uriage |
2-1 | 9-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-8 | L |
| 28/06 | Roger Pascual Ferra M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 27/06 | Lukas Pokorny M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/06 | Dominick Mosejczuk M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/06 | Isaac Becroft M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Diego Fernandez Flores M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Tighe Brunetti M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Adan Freire Da Silva M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Laurin Aerne
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Mathys Picard M25 Uriage |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Antoine Mayoral M25 Uriage |
2-1 | 8-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Nicholas David Ionel M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 02/03 | Erwin Troebinger M25 Trimbach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/02 | Alfie King M25 Sheffield |
1-1 | 7-10 | L |
| 18/11 | Arjun Mehrotra ITF M15 Kuala Lumpur · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/11 | Yuta Kawahashi ITF M15 Kuala Lumpur · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/11 | Sai Karteek Reddy Ganta ITF M15 Kuala Lumpur · Hard |
2-1 | 10-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Udit Kamboj ITF M25 Kigali · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Aniketh Venkataraman ITF M25 Kigali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathys Picard vs Laurin Aerne?
Our model gives 76% to Mathys Picard, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.