Prediction: Lasse Poertner vs Kaspar Mathes
Prediction summary
Winner
Lasse Poertner
Kaspar Mathes
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Lasse Poertner
8-2 (W-L)
Kaspar Mathes
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lasse Poertner 1503 · Kaspar Mathes 1443
| Lasse Poertner | Kaspar Mathes | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lasse Poertner (rating 1503 vs 1443).
Statistics
| Lasse Poertner | Kaspar Mathes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.7 | 8.1-10.6 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 65.5% | 65.5% |
| Break % | 61.1% | 30.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lasse Poertner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Ioannis Xilas M25 Kassel |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Mariano Dedura-Palomero M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Michel Hopp M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Julien Penzlin M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Julian Forer M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Nikolai Barsukov M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 15/06 | Kim Johannes Niethammer M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/06 | Sander Jong Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Florian Broska Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Mac Visser M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Kaspar Mathes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Raghav Jaisinghani M15 Uslar |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Dorian Verrue M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Felix Einig M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Mika Petkovic M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Aaron Gil Garcia ITF M25 Sarreguemines · Carpet |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Mika Lipp ITF M15 Offenbach · Hard |
1-2 | 10-10 | L |
| 04/09 | Vincent Marysko ITF M25 Meerbusch · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Tom Varzandeh ITF M25 Meerbusch · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Paulo Knippling ITF M25 Meerbusch · Clay |
2-1 | 7-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lasse Poertner vs Kaspar Mathes?
Our model gives 74% to Lasse Poertner, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.