Tennis · M15 Rochester · 15/07, 14:30
Prediction: Tristan McCormick vs Noah Johnston
Prediction summary
Winner
Tristan McCormick
Noah Johnston
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Tristan McCormick
6-4 (W-L)
Noah Johnston
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tristan McCormick 1459 · Noah Johnston 1518
| Tristan McCormick | Noah Johnston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Noah Johnston (rating 1459 vs 1518).
- Noah Johnston is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Noah Johnston makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Tristan McCormick | Noah Johnston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.9 | 11.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 62.6% |
| Break % | 39.6% | 54.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tristan McCormick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 08/05 | Quinn Vandecasteele M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Alexis Gurmendi M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/05 | Oliver Okonkwo M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/02 | Maxwell Exsted M15 Naples · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/02 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Metepec · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/02 | Robert Strombachs Challenger Baton Rouge · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/02 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Cleveland · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 01/02 | Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Challenger Cleveland · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/01 | Adam Lynch M15 Naples · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Noah Johnston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Noah Zamora M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 09/07 | Jacob Brumm M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Hugo Hashimoto M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 01/07 | Noah Zamora M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Ozan Baris M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Lucas Marionneau M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Matt Kuhar M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/01 | Sachin Palta UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/01 | Santiago Giamichelle UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tristan McCormick vs Noah Johnston?
Our model gives 51% to Noah Johnston, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.