Tennis · WTA Athens · 15/07, 15:00
Prediction: Harriet Dart vs Maria Sakkari
Prediction summary
Winner
Harriet Dart
Maria Sakkari
Estimated games
24.6
Recent form · 10 last
Harriet Dart
4-6 (W-L)
Maria Sakkari
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Harriet Dart
0–1
Maria Sakkari
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Harriet Dart 1447 · Maria Sakkari 1513
| Harriet Dart | Maria Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Sakkari (rating 1447 vs 1513).
- Harriet Dart dominates on serve: 10.5 aces and 51.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Harriet Dart 0–1 Maria Sakkari (1).
- Note: Harriet Dart makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Harriet Dart | Maria Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 17% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.7 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-14.6 | 11-11.7 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 63.2% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
H2H · Harriet Dart 0 – 1 Maria Sakkari (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Harriet Dart 0–1 Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/17 ITF Women Ilkley | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Harriet Dart
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Mina Hodzic WTA Athens · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Hannah Klugman WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Leyre Romero Gormaz French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Yue Yuan French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/04 | Taylah Preston W100 Gifu · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Clara Tauson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 09/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Claire Liu French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Linda Noskova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/05 | Peyton Stearns WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Harriet Dart vs Maria Sakkari?
Our model gives 67% to Maria Sakkari, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.