Tennis · UTR Pro Knoxville Women · 14/07, 21:00
Prediction: Lillie Murphy vs Mary Boyce Deatherage
Prediction summary
Winner
Lillie Murphy
Mary Boyce Deatherage
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Lillie Murphy
6-4 (W-L)
Mary Boyce Deatherage
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lillie Murphy
1–0
Mary Boyce Deatherage
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lillie Murphy 1591 · Mary Boyce Deatherage 1493
| Lillie Murphy | Mary Boyce Deatherage | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lillie Murphy (rating 1591 vs 1493).
- Lillie Murphy is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lillie Murphy 1–0 Mary Boyce Deatherage (1).
- Note: Mary Boyce Deatherage makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Lillie Murphy | Mary Boyce Deatherage | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-7.6 | 11.9-11.5 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 61% |
| Break % | 62.6% | 40.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Lillie Murphy 1 – 0 Mary Boyce Deatherage (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillie Murphy 1–0 Mary Boyce Deatherage
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/25 UTR Pro Athens Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lillie Murphy
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Georgia Kulevich UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/06 | Reese Frank UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 25/06 | Alyson Shannon UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Audrey Aulia UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Gabrielle Guenther UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 17/08 | Prisca Abbas UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/08 | Paula Dougherty UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Andrea Chacon UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Jantje Tilbuerger UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Caitlin Flower UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Mary Boyce Deatherage
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Audrey Aulia UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Sydney Jara UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/06 | Ellie Myers UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Calla McGill UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 16/08 | Prisca Abbas UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 15/08 | Jennifer Riester UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Lan Mi UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Shona Nakano UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/08 | Olivia Carneiro UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Sasha Dimitrov UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lillie Murphy vs Mary Boyce Deatherage?
Our model gives 65% to Lillie Murphy, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.