Tennis · M25 Uriage · 14/07, 08:30
Prediction: Mathys Picard vs Laurin Aerne
Prediction summary
Winner
Mathys Picard
Laurin Aerne
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mathys Picard
7-3 (W-L)
Laurin Aerne
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mathys Picard 1547 · Laurin Aerne 1466
| Mathys Picard | Laurin Aerne | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mathys Picard (rating 1547 vs 1466).
- Mathys Picard is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mathys Picard | Laurin Aerne | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9 | 9.8-10.8 |
| Aces | 2 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathys Picard
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Robinson Le Meur M25 Uriage |
2-1 | 9-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-8 | L |
| 28/06 | Roger Pascual Ferra M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 27/06 | Lukas Pokorny M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/06 | Dominick Mosejczuk M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/06 | Isaac Becroft M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Diego Fernandez Flores M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Tighe Brunetti M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Adan Freire Da Silva M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Lenny Couturier M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Laurin Aerne
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Antoine Mayoral M25 Uriage |
2-1 | 8-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Nicholas David Ionel M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 02/03 | Erwin Troebinger M25 Trimbach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/02 | Alfie King M25 Sheffield |
1-1 | 7-10 | L |
| 18/11 | Arjun Mehrotra ITF M15 Kuala Lumpur · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/11 | Yuta Kawahashi ITF M15 Kuala Lumpur · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/11 | Sai Karteek Reddy Ganta ITF M15 Kuala Lumpur · Hard |
2-1 | 10-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Udit Kamboj ITF M25 Kigali · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Aniketh Venkataraman ITF M25 Kigali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Nicholas Van Aken ITF M25 Kigali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathys Picard vs Laurin Aerne?
Our model gives 73% to Mathys Picard, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.