Tennis · UTR Pro Knoxville Women · 16/07, 19:30
Prediction: Lillie Murphy vs Aya Manning
Prediction summary
Winner
Lillie Murphy
Aya Manning
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Lillie Murphy
6-4 (W-L)
Aya Manning
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lillie Murphy 1574 · Aya Manning 1473
| Lillie Murphy | Aya Manning | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lillie Murphy (rating 1574 vs 1473).
- Lillie Murphy is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Aya Manning makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Lillie Murphy | Aya Manning | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-8.4 | 10.7-10.3 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 60.7% |
| Break % | 58.5% | 52.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lillie Murphy
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Katie Spencer UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Mary Boyce Deatherage UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/06 | Georgia Kulevich UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/06 | Reese Frank UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 25/06 | Alyson Shannon UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Audrey Aulia UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Gabrielle Guenther UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 17/08 | Prisca Abbas UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/08 | Paula Dougherty UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Andrea Chacon UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Aya Manning
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Mary Boyce Deatherage UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Katie Spencer UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/07 | Andrea Chacon UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 10/07 | Lucia Fuduric UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Susana Souhrada UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Mary Grace Rennard UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 14/06 | Camille Kiss UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 12/06 | Alexandra Wolf UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Kohana Darroch UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lillie Murphy vs Aya Manning?
Our model gives 69% to Lillie Murphy, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.